ToneHall

Naked Capitalism: WSJ Says 35 Billion in Capital Needed by B of A

One of the many 'other shoes' dropped tonight -- with the announcement that B of A is, even with all the government assistance, short about $35B....give or take a billion.

Here's the translation, courtesy of comment by 'mmckinl'....

...B of A market cap 69 billion

...TARP 45 billion

...capitalization 24 billion

...and they need 35 billion

... = Insolvency

And Lewis was going to pay back TARP by the end of 2009 80 billion ...

The upshot?  Well, 'mmckinl' thinks Lewis should be fired...and I suspect by this time tomorrow he won't be the only one thinking that.  Looks like a change of command will occur shortly.  That sound you hear?  Lewis boxing up his belongings...

Naked Capitalism: 'Zombie Bank' - Suitable for Dancing

Time for a retro rumba by way of Yves Smith's Naked Capitalism...this one's going out to all those Citi and B of A customers.

Naked Capitalism: No Stomach for Bank Snatching, Treasury Seeks OK to Seize Non-Banks

Apparently Citi and B of A have been too large to swallow, so Treasury may content itself with other fish.

This just in from Naked Capitalism:  "The Washington Post reports that Treasury will seek the power to take over insurers, hedge funds, and investment firms. Given the Treasury's reluctance to assume control over clearly insolvent banks (Citi assuredly, probably Bank of America), it seems curious indeed that it is asking to extend authority that it is patently reluctant to exercise."

Read the story in Naked Capitalism here.

The opening Washington Post graph:  "The Obama administration is considering asking Congress to give the Treasury secretary unprecedented powers to initiate the seizure of non-bank financial companies, such as large insurers, investment firms and hedge funds, whose collapse would damage the broader economy, according to an administration document."

Read the entire story here.

Naked Capitalism: From Yves Smith's No Exit to Sartre's Huis Clos

In Silicon Valley, one of the first things venture capitalists learn is, to paraphrase Guy Kawasaki, 'the art of the exit.'  Looks like the Fed may need lessons.

Geithner and Bernanke continue to plan to have a plan...and the announcement today about the government buying the toxic assets sent the market into the kind of reaction usually experienced only by those using meth, heroin or cocaine.

And as Yves points out, "Wanting to have an exit strategy and actually having an exit strategy are two different states of affairs."  Indeed.

Her questions as to what happens when the Fed loses money by selling what it owns are good ones.  Especially when I think about it owning a ton of toxic assets.

Let's take the case of homes in default or abandoned.  In Capitola, CA frends just found an abandoned home they think they'd like to buy - if only their real estate agent can find the bank that's still holding the paper on it.  We can be pretty certain there's a large stock of housing banks won't even put on the market, because the price drop would be a killer.  So they sit and wait for the gov to purchase the stuff.  This may well provide banks with even more of a reason not to mitigate mortgages - they can effectively dump the stuff on the government, clean their balance sheets and get back to biz.  Consumers be damned.

Is there an exit, or will banks simply say, "Please, may I have some more, sir?" 

In Sartre's brilliant play, Huis Clos, the characters are depicted as being in hell awaiting their torturer - except that they come to realize there won't be one arriving.  In fact, they are there to torture themselves.  Is this the actual end game of the government's purchase of a big bag o' toxic assets?

At the end of the play, one character finds he has only to say the word and the locked door opens.  Yet by that time they are all accustomed to their lot and the characters stay in hell, though they have the freedom to leave.  It's my hope we don't repeat that scenario.

Clusterstock: Rogoff Says Endgame is Bank Bankruptcy

Henry Blodget (yes, that Henry Blodget - don't be rude) discusses David Brancaccio's interview with Harvard prof and former IMF economist Ken Rogoff.

This is an important vid because Rogoff talks about the housing market being about 2 years away from a bottom - and he also notes that while '09 is the year of the economy, '10 will be a year of exceptional anger. 

His take is that some speeded-up form of bankruptcy that includes a solution to toxic assets will be necessary for dealing with banks (read Citi and B of A).

He also notes that politicians are failing to deal with the problem.  His concept is that at least 2 trillion will be needed, while instead politicians want to commit only 1 trillion.

Why is this a mistake?  Because the debt-bomb gets bigger as the clock ticks.

See the vid and read Hank's take here.

New York Times: Model Mayhem in Manhattan

Arrests were made in a huge donnybrook resulting from a stampede of thousands wanting to be 'America's Next Top Model' as in the TV Show.  Is this what we've come to?

Fights, minor injuries, a crush of people and general bad behavior was had at the Park Central Hotel in Manhattan this afternoon.  You can see raw footage from several stories up here.

Tyra Banks, the mogul who runs 'America's Next Top Model, was unavailable for comment but I'm betting this was a huge headache.  She's usually permits access and has given definite thought not just to her modeling career but also to what follows.  Unlike many, she's been so successful that her show is in its 13th season - not to be sniffed at. 

I predict she'll do much more.  This is, after all, a woman who perfected 275 different smiles.

Read the NYT story here.

Mr. Madoff - Don't Drop the Soap

Perp walks done, bail revoked, Bernard Madoff is now behind bars.

The cold, early-morning wait for Bernard Madoff to arrive in court and make his guilty plea is now over.  Thousands - maybe even millions - of shutter clicks later, he's gone through intake and is in a cell somewhere in New York.

Unlike a Hollywood film, there will be no justice in this case.  Billions later, professionals who had millions and lost them are now living back home with their elderly parents.  No tidy resolution here - much of the money may never be found and even with Mr. Madoff in prison, we are left wondering when the public will get any details regarding the twisted trail of dollars.  For some forensic accountant, this will be the work of a lifetime.

We've heard he pled guilty to avoid having his wife and the rest of the family implicated.  It's likely now that Madoff is salted away, we'll see prosecutors begin the laborious process of looking into the financial affairs of his wife and children - maybe even others. 

More to come.  Meanwhile, Mr. M. will have to learn to navigate an entirely foreign culture.  One in which his fellow inmates are likely to be even less forgiving than the general public.

New York Times: Watchmen - Dr. Manhattan's Melancholy Fits Our Economy

Is Dr. Manhattan our new 'everyman?'

A.O. Scott calls the new Watchmen a "grim and grisly excursion into comic-book mythology."

The epic has become a metaphor for the U.S. economic crisis - painful, stumbling and dark.

Here's an excerpt from Scott:  "The infliction of pain is rendered in intimate and precise aural and visual detail, from the noise of cracking bones and the gushers of blood and saliva to the splattery deconstruction of entire bodies. But brutality is not merely part of Mr. Snyder’s repertory of effects; it is more like a cause, a principle, an ideology. And his commitment to violence brings into relief the shallow nihilism that has always lurked beneath the intellectual pretensions of “Watchmen.” The only action that makes sense in this world — the only sure basis for ethics or politics, the only expression of love or loyalty or conviction — is killing. And the dramatic conflict revealed, at long last, in the film’s climactic arguments is between a wholesale, idealistic approach to mass death and one that is more cynical and individualistic."

Not a ray of light in sight.

CNN: Ugly Wall Street

NASDAQ at 1299, the Dow looks doggy at 6594, the S&P sucks at 692 - yup, ugly is back in style on Wall Street.

With GM struggling to stay out of bankruptcy court (even after billions thrown at it's problems by the government), and Citicorp now a penny stock, it's not a pretty picture.

The one winner in all this mess?  Wal-Mart Stores.  The retailer experienced a 5.1% increase in same-store sales in February.  This key retail metric demonstrates that shoppers who have deserted the malls in droves are simply spending their money where it will go farther.  Arkansas must be very happy.  Look for the trend to continue as people economize wherever they can.

Evidence supporting that statement was found at Abercrombie & Fitch.  The fashionable sellers of jeans and t-shirts to young hotties posted a same-store sales drop of 30%.  Even venerable Nordstrom, that bastion of exceptional service and taste, was hurt by a 15.4% drop in sales.

Fasten your seat belts - it's going to be a bumpy night.

Charley Reese: The 545 People Responsible

The remarkable Charley Reese wrote that there are 545 people responsible for what goes on in the United States.

"One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one president and nine Supreme Court justices - 545 human beings out of the 235 million - are directly, legally, morally and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country."

He may well be right, but make no mistake - every one of us who are of voting age bears responsibility also.  Whether we voted or not, whether we've contacted our senator or representative, whether we've written a brief note to President Obama - each of us carries a degree of personal responsibility.

If you haven't expressed yourself - write a letter to the editor of your local paper or send an email to your federal representatives.  This is the time - Charley's waiting.  Whatever your viewpoint regarding our economy and political situation, stand up!